Within the last few days, heavy downpour has been experienced in many parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands (Table 1). Flash floods have been reported in some areas within the basins including Gedo, Bakool and Bay regions.
Following the heavy rains, the river levels have increased drastically in the entire reaches of the two rivers and are a few centimeters to reach the bank full levels at Luuq and Belet Weyne.
The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (23 to 29 April, 2018) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia as seen in Map 1. Observed river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen heavy rains.
There is therefore an immediate high risk of flooding along the two rivers given the current situation.
Areas to watch include; Belet Weyne and Jowhar towns (Shabelle) and their environs; where the river levels are currently at full crest, Dollow , Bardheere and Bualle town (Juba) and their environs, other riverine towns in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey as well as those in Lower Juba.
Flash floods in Bay and Bakool regions also cannot be ruled out given the rainfall forecast.